Surge in Bitcoin ‘Hot Capital’ Signals Speculative Momentum as Short-Term Interest Climbs

Bitcoin is seemingly moving into a new stage of speculative enthusiasm, with a fresh crop of significant engaging in it. The returns have allegedly been ludicrous lately, with Bitcoin breaking back over the $30,000 mark in May after falling under it for much of April. In the past week alone, ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) has surged 13.6% in value. As of March 24, the actual 24-hour average price of Bitcoin is $29,877.81, and the price used in the calculations below is from the same day. On the other hand, the average price of Bitcoin in April, for calculation’s sake, was $25,995.44. This rise in activity presents a clear appearance: after several weeks of consolidation and dormancy, Bitcoin has seen renewed speculative interest pouring back into it at a fast clip. From April 21 on, hot capital has moved back into the Bitcoin market in a big way, with a sharp uptick in the appearance of risen capital in recent days. We now find that, as of April 28, appears to have moved from a cold $20.7 billion up to a hot figure of $39.1 billion, with this risen capital being looked at with the appearance of a serious uptick all throughout Bitcoin price and with newly capped market figures. #Bitcoin ‘s Hot Capital (sum of coins moved in the last 24h + 1d–1w) reached $39.1B on 28 Apr – its highest since 10 Feb. This metric captures short-term holder activity and is a proxy for speculative capital entering the market: https://t.co/gxCGzWzEHW pic.twitter.com/hephgPEzTx — glassnode (@glassnode) April 29, 2025 From Dormancy to Speculation: A Swift Transition In the month of May, the street was buzzing with speculation about meteoric increases in Bitcoin’s price. By the 8th of the month, the top crypto had exploded to nearly $30,000—a level it hadn’t touched in quite some time. It felt like a chuggernaut, just a train that keeps on going up, up, and away with no stop, and you have to keep looking for higher stations to hop off. To look at this narrative another way, from the 23rd of March until the 8th of May, the hot capital of Bitcoin increased by more than $21.5 billion. This narrative is confirmed by the behavior of Bitcoin holders. They show the latest supply mapping data for Bitcoin. We see that First Buyers—who are just entering the market now—and Momentum Buyers—who are always chasing price trends, and thus are not really reliable—they show that there is still a pretty strong demand for Bitcoin. Now, on the other side of the equation, we have Profit Takers. Who are these guys? Well, they are typical long-term holders who sell when the price rallies. Now, what’s interesting is that these Profit Takers have been only moderately active in this latest countertrend rally. The current uptrend seems to be more than just a short-lived spike, and this is a view that many people are beginning to express. Why? There are some very good reasons. $BTC Supply Mapping update: First Buyers and Momentum Buyers continue to show strong engagement, while Profit Takers’ activity remains moderate. This is constructive, as it suggests ongoing demand from new and trend-following participants without significant distribution… pic.twitter.com/FrgwhC8nwz — glassnode (@glassnode) April 28, 2025 Long-term holders of Bitcoin and of Ethereum, as well as of many altcoins, are not selling aggressively. These people are mostly in the profit zone, and they are either holding their assets or they are using those assets in ways that do not involve selling. Meanwhile, the world seems to be filled with new, trend-following, and very enthusiastic buyers of not only Bitcoin and Ethereum but also of a wide range of altcoins. Ethereum Joins the Party, But With Caution In recent weeks, speculative capital has primarily focused on Bitcoin. Still, Ethereum has begun to show early signs of similar activity. Data reveals that First Buyers of ETH have dramatically increased for the first time since February, indicating that renewed retail and institutional interest in the asset is afoot. Meanwhile, Momentum Buyers have become more active, suggesting that ETH is starting to attract the kind of trend-driven capital that has recently acted as a significant force for BTC. Nonetheless, there is a caveat. Whereas Bitcoin appears to be enjoying a mostly unobstructed demand surge, Ethereum is seeing an uptick in Profit Taker activity as well. This suggests that, with ETH, demand is being met with a lot more resistance from existing holders who are cashing in their gains. That’s likely one reason why ETH’s price recovery has been a lot less vigorous than Bitcoin’s. Market analysts see this as a balancing act: new capital is coming into ETH markets, but so is supply. This could limit short-term price gains unless demand grows much faster than this new supply. Either way, the renewed interest from First and Momentum Buyers is a promising development for ETH as it looks to rebuild. Short-term capital is rotating faster, and new market entrants are ramping up their exposure; both Bitcoin and Ethereum seem to be moving into a make-or-break moment. For Bitcoin in particular, the inflow of hot capital and the inclination of profit takers to hold rather than sell creates a very supportive atmosphere for this rally. If it keeps going, we might well look back on this moment as the start of another big leg up in the crypto bull cycle. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. 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