Massive Token Unlocks Ahead: What Investors Should Know About Upcoming Supply Surges

In the next year, a number of cryptocurrency projects will free up large quantities of tokens that were set aside for reserve and community purposes—creating what could be some major supply-side headwinds for the crypto market. Unfettered by their not-quite-circulating status, there are 8.5 million ETH that could now crisscross the market to affect price dynamics. They are 8.5 million ETH—which, if every last one of them were to be folded back into the market, might statistically amount to half of what retail investors are now holding—more than enough to upset the market for small-token floats. Internal token unlocks are not always associated with immediate price drops or token dumps. However, a “next-level” understanding of not just these unlocks, but also of their scale relative to the current circulating supply, can help us investors gauge the real risks. This is especially true in projects with some mix of: (1) aggressive emission schedules; (2) a near-term number of actual tokens that have a minimal market float. $CONX and $GUN: High Risk, High Supply Impact The next year sees the most spectacular unlocking for $CONX, with a stunning $507.3 million in tokens up for release—equivalent to a breathtaking 2,050% of its current circulating supply. While this supply should already be technically unlocked, it hasn’t yet entered the actual circulating market. The actual unlocking could cause major price disruption. If demand doesn’t keep pace, $CONX could experience some rough seas ahead. Holders and watchers of $CONX, prepare for volatility times two. Next in line is $GUN, with $65.75 million in tokens set to unlock, constituting 171.9% of its circulating supply. Here we have an extreme case of a low float token facing a high emission curve. With a fully diluted valuation (FDV) that is hard to fathom and a limited supply to work with, any upward move in GUN’s price could see an equally large down leg when one factors in that unlocked tokens serve as a makeshift treasury for the GUN project. Mid-Cap Pressure: $PARTI, $BMT, and $AI Mid-cap projects are also witnessing substantial unlock events that could remodel their supply dynamics. $PARTI is about to distribute $97.96 million worth of tokens, which is equivalent to 109.9% of its circulating supply. In effect, this means that more than double the currently tradable amount of $PARTI could be in circulation within a year. For investors, that’s pointing to potential dilution of our assets unless we see some equally aggressive growth in the ecosystem or demand that would absorb all those tokens. In the same way, the token with a smaller market cap, $BMT, faces an unlock of $27.95 million—equal to 102.8% of its circulating supply. Small-cap tokens are usually more vulnerable to unlocks because they have thin order books and very little liquidity. Even moderately heavy distribution can lead to an unlock that feels like a concentrated dump. And unless the project has a clear, staggered release mechanism, this is likely to happen, with the manner of the unlock ensuring that it feels like some sort of concentrated dump. Next is $AI, another project that’s gaining attention with the rise of AI in Web3. Yet, it has $25.07 million in reserves, and community tokens that are set to be unlocked constitute 99.4% of the current supply. While the AI sector is surging, $AI’s supply could very well outstrip its demand unless the token’s adoption and utility burgeon in kind. Long-Term Emissions: $WLD and $ELX Although it is not as extreme in relative terms, WLD leads in absolute value with 1.15 billion dollars worth of tokens that are scheduled to be unlocked, representing 88.6 percent of its circulating supply. The difference here is its slow emission model, which distributes the tokens in a consistent, monthly curve. Whereas sudden shocks to supply cause immediate price impacts (as seen with BICO), a long-term, consistent sell schedule can be just as harmful in terms of downward pressure but far less noticeable as it is happening. This is pricing in the impact of utility and demand over a much longer timeframe. Finally, $ELX will unveil tokens amounting to $17.98 million, which is 93.9% of its circulating supply. This number—in light of all the others—looks quite small. But relative to its market cap and supply, the impact could be notable. A few things to watch with this unlock and any potential future unlocks: 1. The distribution of the unlocked tokens compared to the pre-existing supply. 2. The presence of any secretive or overly vague vesting schedules. 3. The apparent motivation of the team for the unlocked tokens and in what context the tokens might be used. Biggest Internal TokenUnlocks Coming in the Next 12 Months Reserve & Community allocations are designed to grow ecosystems via contributors, marketing, and liquidity support But they also introduce significant supply pressure when released in bulk Here’s what’s coming pic.twitter.com/TVYmg8CaBL — Tokenomist (prev. TokenUnlocks) (@Tokenomist_ai) May 13, 2025 What This Means for Investors The upcoming unlocks highlight a critical aspect of tokenomics: large-scale emissions can create significant challenges for even the most highly regarded projects. Allocating tokens to reserves and communities is essential for the healthy growth of ecosystems. However, if those allocations are not made in a transparent and strategic manner, they can produce a pretty nasty side effect: suppressing the price of a token when the price is most vulnerable. Investors should examine not just the volume of the unlocks but also the manner in which the tokens are put to use—liquidity mining, for instance, grants, or incentives to the actual project teams—and whether real usage is happening in the project, if partnerships are being made, or if developer activity to speak of is occurring that could actually take up the new supply. The coming year will be a proving ground for the tokenomics across the board. Those who manage with clearly defined strategies and responsible unlock models may well survive whatever storm is brewing. Those who don’t could find their tokens subjected to a serious market haircut. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news !