Bitcoin Market Faces Supply Squeeze as Institutions and Royals Weigh In

Bitcoin’s supply on cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to levels not seen in over six years, with data pointing to a sharp rise in institutional and public company accumulation. At the same time, market observers — including Prince Filip Karađorđević of Serbia — are noting signs of potential price suppression that could be delaying Bitcoin’s next major rally. Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Hit Six-Year Low as Corporate Accumulation Surges Post-Election The supply of Bitcoin on cryptocurrency exchanges has plummeted to its lowest level in over six years, according to Fidelity Digital Assets, a sign that long-term holders — especially publicly traded companies — are rapidly accumulating the digital asset. In a post on X, Fidelity revealed that Bitcoin reserves held on exchanges have fallen to approximately 2.6 million BTC — a level not seen since November 2018. More than 425,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges since the start of November, signaling a major supply squeeze that could have implications for price discovery and long-term valuation. “We have seen Bitcoin supply on exchanges dropping due to public company purchases — something we anticipate accelerating in the near future,” Fidelity said. The exodus of coins from centralized platforms is often interpreted as a bullish signal, implying that holders are securing their Bitcoin in cold storage rather than keeping it readily available for sale. This behavior is typically associated with long-term conviction rather than short-term speculation. Strategy Leads the Corporate Bitcoin Charge Fidelity’s analysis shows that publicly listed companies have acquired nearly 350,000 BTC over the same period, representing a massive shift in corporate treasury strategies. Dominating this accumulation is Strategy, the business intelligence and software firm co-founded by Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor, which has evolved into a de facto Bitcoin investment vehicle. A snapshot of some of Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases over the past six months (Source: Strategy ) Since November, Strategy has acquired 285,980 BTC — a staggering 81% of the total public company purchases during this time frame. The company disclosed its most recent acquisition of 6,556 BTC on April 21, underscoring its aggressive pace and sustained bullish outlook on Bitcoin. Saylor, who stepped down as CEO in 2022 to focus on Bitcoin strategy, has repeatedly stated that the company views Bitcoin as ”digital gold” and a superior treasury reserve asset in an environment of rising fiscal instability and fiat debasement. The corporate accumulation trend is not limited to the United States. Asian companies are also jumping on board, using Bitcoin to diversify reserves and hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. Japan’s Metaplanet has emerged as a regional leader in Bitcoin adoption, with the firm now holding 5,000 BTC. CEO Simon Gerovich has publicly declared his ambition to double that figure by the end of the year, signaling long-term confidence in the asset’s future. Hong Kong-listed HK Asia Holdings has taken a similar route, announcing plans to raise approximately $8.35 million — a portion of which may be used to bolster its Bitcoin reserves. The move is part of growing momentum among Asia-Pacific firms to incorporate digital assets into their corporate strategies, particularly as inflationary concerns and dollar dominance remain key risk factors in global finance. Institutional Support Grows Post-ETF Approval The decline in exchange reserves and rise in corporate purchases come on the heels of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s historic approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January. Fidelity itself launched the Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund as part of this cohort — a development that has played a crucial role in accelerating institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class. Fidelity Digital Assets, the crypto-focused arm of the $5.8 trillion asset manager Fidelity Investments, has long championed the institutionalization of Bitcoin . Established in 2018, Fidelity Digital was among the earliest Wall Street firms to explore crypto custody and trading solutions for professional investors. With more corporate balance sheets being restructured to include Bitcoin and major financial firms offering regulated exposure through ETFs, Bitcoin’s transformation from fringe technology to institutional-grade asset is now well underway. As Bitcoin exchange reserves dwindle and supply tightens, market observers are closely watching how these dynamics will affect the next leg of Bitcoin’s price action. With over 350,000 BTC now in corporate hands — and counting — the available float for retail and smaller institutional investors continues to shrink. Should the current trend continue, Bitcoin’s scarcity-driven valuation thesis could gain even more traction, particularly in a macroeconomic environment increasingly characterized by currency debasement, geopolitical volatility, and demand for non-sovereign stores of value. Bitcoin’s “Omega Candle” Theory Gains Traction Amid Market Suppression Concerns and ETF Momentum Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s current price momentum may be deceptively subdued as it prepares for what some in the crypto community are calling an “omega candle” event — a potential parabolic rally that could redefine the digital asset’s value proposition. According to Prince Filip Karađorđević, the hereditary prince of Serbia and Yugoslavia, deliberate price suppression by powerful actors may be holding Bitcoin back in the short term — but not for long. In an April 24 interview with the crypto-focused outlet Simply Bitcoin, Prince Filip expressed his belief that Bitcoin’s price trajectory is being influenced by unseen hands in the market. “People are able to control the market to some extent,” he said. “Maybe that’s what acted on the 2021 market that suppressed its price from jumping high up. We could get that again in 2025, but there will be one point where [Bitcoin’s price] will run away.” The prince remains firmly bullish, emphasizing that Bitcoin is a fundamentally deflationary asset whose value is “always going to rise over time.” Filip’s comments reference the concept of the “omega candle,” a theory first popularized by Bitcoin advocate and Jan3 CEO Samson Mow. Speaking in November 2024, Mow suggested that once Bitcoin surpasses the long-anticipated $100,000 milestone, its price action could enter a new, hyper-volatile regime. “You’ll start to go up by $10,000 a day or drop by $10,000 a day,” Mow said. “And this is the God candle. After that, we’ll start to see omega candles, which are $100,000 increments daily.” While the prediction is dramatic, it resonates with the growing sentiment that Bitcoin could experience a major breakout as structural factors like institutional adoption, monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical instability push investors toward hard assets. Institutional Accumulation Fuels Uptrend Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strengthening, even if short-term price action appears restrained. Over the past week, Bitcoin recovered more than 9%, boosted by inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to data from Farside Investors, over $2.2 billion worth of BTC was scooped up by ETFs in just the three days leading up to April 23. Bitcoin ETF inflows (Source: Farside Investors ) Bitfinex analysts believe this trend is in line with Bitcoin’s growing resilience compared to equities and fiat currencies. “Bitcoin is rallying due to a combination of macro relief, strong ETF inflows, and growing expectations that the Fed will maintain policy flexibility amid softening economic data,” the exchange noted. These ETFs — approved in early 2024 — have significantly bolstered Bitcoin’s credibility among institutional investors, positioning it as both a hedge and a growth asset in an increasingly volatile economic environment. Despite the bullish undercurrents, macroeconomic uncertainty could still weigh on near-term Bitcoin performance. JPMorgan has placed the odds of a US recession in 2025 at 60%, citing US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy as a major risk. The 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, introduced earlier this month, are seen as a potential drag on global economic growth and a source of inflationary pressure that could complicate monetary policy. Still, this uncertainty could paradoxically drive more investors to seek refuge in Bitcoin. As trust in traditional financial systems erodes — a trend noted by both Mow and Filip — Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and capped supply offer an increasingly attractive alternative. Awaiting the Breakout For now, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating just below its all-time high levels, hovering around $93,000. Market participants are watching closely to see whether the current cycle will mirror 2021 — when Bitcoin’s price briefly surged before being pulled back — or if the so-called “omega candle” will finally be ignited. The convergence of institutional inflows, macroeconomic pressures, and increasing geopolitical uncertainty suggests that a breakout may be less a question of “if” and more of “when.” If the predictions hold true, the crypto market could be on the verge of witnessing the most explosive price action in Bitcoin’s history.