Bitcoin May Never Be This Cheap Again: Arthur Hayes

Hayes pointed to upcoming US Treasury buybacks as a potential catalyst that could inject a lot of liquidity into the market and drive Bitcoin’s next major leg up. Supporting this outlook, analysts like Jamie Coutts predict that BTC’s price could jump past $132,000 by year-end, thanks to expansionary monetary policies and a weakening US dollar. Bitcoin recently surged past $87,000 amid these macroeconomic shifts, breaking out of a multi-month consolidation pattern. Whale accumulation also intensified, with more than 60 new addresses holding 1,000+ BTC created since March. This could mean that there is growing confidence from high-net-worth investors. Institutional demand is also spiking, led by firms like Japan’s Metaplanet and Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which are both aggressively expanding their BTC reserves. These trends suggest Bitcoin is entering a new phase of adoption and appreciation. Last Chance to Buy Bitcoin Under 100K? Bitcoin (BTC) may be creeping closer to a pivotal price point, and analysts suggest that investors are running out of time to buy BTC below six figures. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, took to X on April 21 to warn that this could be the “last chance” to buy Bitcoin under $100,000. Hayes pointed to potential US Treasury buybacks as a major upcoming catalyst that could trigger a sharp rise in Bitcoin’s value. Treasury buybacks, where the US government repurchases bonds from the open market, are designed to improve liquidity and stabilize interest rates. However, they also tend to benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by increasing the flow of fiat currency into financial markets. Supporting Hayes’ view, other market analysts also predicted that growth in the fiat money supply could drive big gains in Bitcoin this year. Jamie Coutts , chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, suggested that expanding monetary policy could push Bitcoin to over $132,000 before the end of 2025. While macroeconomic uncertainty like trade wars between the US and China could put a temporary damper on investor sentiment, the broader trend still appears bullish for Bitcoin. The weakening US dollar is also playing a role in Bitcoin’s recent momentum. The US Dollar Index recently hit its lowest level since March of 2022, after President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs earlier this month. In response, Bitcoin surged past $87,700 for the first time in nearly three weeks. Bitwise’s European head of research André Dragosch pointed out that Bitcoin is pumping on continued dollar weakness, while Bitget’s chief analyst Ryan Lee shed some light on the strong trading volume and a breakout from a descending wedge pattern that suggests the possibility of testing the $90,000 resistance level. Meanwhile, institutional interest also continues to grow. Despite market corrections, firms in Japan and the UK are reportedly pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into Bitcoin. Bitcoin Whales Are Back in Accumulation Mode The fact that the number of Bitcoin whale addresses surged in April also proves that BTC’s momentum is building, and signals a strong phase of accumulation among large holders. Since early March, more than 60 new wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC have emerged, pushing the total number of such addresses to 2,107 as of April 15. This is according to data from Glassnode . Addresses with more than 1000 BTC (Source: Glassnode ) This was a four-month high and reached levels that were last seen during the market rallies of November and December after the election of US President Donald Trump. While the all-time high for these whale addresses was closer to 2,500 in February of 2021, the current uptick suggests renewed interest from high-net-worth investors. In addition to the rise in 1,000+ BTC wallets, addresses holding over 100 BTC also saw modest growth by reaching 18,026 by April 20. However, there’s been a noticeable decline in the number of wallets holding less than 10 BTC. This indicates a concentration of Bitcoin among larger players. Recent data also reveals that whales are absorbing more than 300% of Bitcoin’s annual issuance, while exchange balances continue to fall. This is an indicator that long-term holders are taking their coins off trading platforms and into cold storage. These accumulation trends come at a time when Bitcoin is showing renewed strength in the markets. On April 21, the asset surged by more than $3,000, hitting $87,400 for the first time since late March. Analysts note that Bitcoin appears to be breaking out of a sideways consolidation pattern that began in early March and is now completing a bullish breakout from a multimonth falling wedge. As trader ‘Mister Crypto’ put it, “Whales are accumulating massive amounts of Bitcoin, they know what comes next.” Asia’s MicroStrategy Boosts Bitcoin Holdings Again Japanese investment firm Metaplanet also recently expanded its Bitcoin holdings to over $400 million after its latest acquisition of 330 BTC for $28.2 million at an average price of $85,605 per coin. This purchase brings the company’s total holdings to 4,855 BTC, currently valued at approximately $414 million. Metaplanet’s CEO, Simon Gerovich, confirmed the acquisition in an April 21 post, and mentioned that the firm’s year-to-date Bitcoin yield has now exceeded 119%. To fund previous acquisitions, Metaplanet issued 2 billion Japanese yen worth of bonds in late March. With this latest purchase, Metaplanet became Asia’s largest and the world’s 10th-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, according to Bitbo data . The company also has ambitious plans to grow its holdings to 21,000 BTC by 2026. This will help position it as a key driver of Bitcoin adoption across Japan. This strategic vision earned Metaplanet comparisons to Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which is the US-based firm that leads all public companies in Bitcoin ownership. Top companies that own Bitcoin (Source: Bitbo ) Strategy itself recently announced the purchase of 3,459 BTC for $285.5 million, increasing its total to 531,644 BTC valued at over $35.9 billion. The rising institutional interest from companies like Metaplanet, Strategy, and Tether is seen by analysts as a powerful force accelerating Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle. According to Enmanuel Cardozo of Brickken, this cycle may evolve faster than expected due to increased market maturity and liquidity. Despite short-term caution stemming from ongoing global trade tensions and tariff uncertainties, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is still highly optimistic. Joe Burnett , director of market research at Unchained, believes Bitcoin’s growing status as a superior savings technology could push its value beyond $1.8 million by 2035. This means that BTC could rival gold’s $21 trillion market cap.